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Tony Burke has said he does not believe in the world Assimilation and the Melting point thesis. I think there will be a culture war on Multiculturalism. This is why Libs cannot hope that seats like this realign to them due to issues like LGBT issues as other culture war issues such as Nationalism play differently in say Western Sydney versus Regional Australia.
@Nimalan, I wonder if the recent statements made by Angus Taylor regarding immigration have backfired as it might ended up not appealing to both sides of the culture war on Multiculturalism? The challenge of Tony Burke to keep his seat safe is to win a coalition of different CALD Groups seat as the seat has various different large CALD communities with Lebanese (mainly concentrated in the Central and Western part), Chinese (mainly around Campsie), Bangladeshi (mainly around Lakemba) and Vietnamese (mainly around the Western part) Communities.
@ Marh
It maybe just to keep his leadership as he fears Hastie. I dont think it will satisfy ONP supporters who want Multiculturalism abolished full stop. I have always said if Libs dont want the Teal seats back winning White Working Class seats they did not win in 2013 like Hunter, Whitlam, McEwen and Blair is not enough they may need to win Gorton, Werriwa and McMahon. Labor is hoping the focus on Multiculturalism will help it get a buffer in the latter 3 seats to prevent CALD working classes reaaligning.
It might’ve been Tony Barry who said on the Back to Back Barries podcast that Angus Taylor’s immigration pitch was about regaining Coalition voters who see immigration as a top issue. He did suggest that the Liberals would be better off pivoting to economic issues.
I think Watson will see a narrowing of the 2CP if the same independent reruns. There is a grievance or disaffected vote (following cost of living pressures and foreign conflicts) that won’t go to the One Nation because of their stances on immigration or multiculturalism.
I have seen a lot of RW Nationalist Social media accounts often referring to the Sitting Member as “Tony Burqa” and that this was a “DEI electorate”. There also been a lot of debate on NDIS Providers in Lakemba when Drew Pavlou and Peter Zouglas did a video. This angered Ahmed Ouf who accused the duo to of Harrasing people and spreading hatred. One Nation also did a video called Welcome to Australia where the Iranian Ayatollah is resettled in Lakemba and said it feels just like Iran. It seems Lakemba had replaced Fitzroy and the Teal areas as the most hated suburb for the right wing in Australia. Others have pointed out the Bondi terrotist was radicalised in this electorate. Andrew Hastie even said Albanese panders to his “South West Sydney voting base”. Other right wing commentators said the ISIS brides were allowed back so they will help boost Labor’s vote.Not long ago many right wing commentators would have felt their culture wars on Trans issues would have resonated here but that seems to be temporary when other culture wars were added to the mix.
Looking at the rise of One Nation, it seems to me that the Nationalism has greater resonance in Australia that pure social/religious conservatism. Not long ago many right wingers thought that Social Conservatives among CALD communities meant that religious CALD people in Western Sydney was a new areas that could replace the Teal areas. However, this fell apart so quickly while ONP can appeal to some White Labor voters in places like Lara/Northern Adelaide in a way that it much harder for Libs to appeal to CALD in South West Sydney. So a culture war that Australian culture is being replaced resonates better than LGBT issues. @Marh has correctly pointed that white working class voters in areas near CALD communities have “Low contact intergroup threat perception.” I think it is important to remember that a CALD person in South West Sydney would have experienced by police profiling, Harrasement and exclusion than say in Eastern Melbourne or Northern Sydney for that reason i think getting a Workinng Class non white to align with Anglos is much harder than in Middle class areas as there is a lack of trust.
@Nimalan, Freya Leach made a video on John Anderson Media recently interviewing people in Western Sydney where you can see non-White CALD are more likely to say respecting Australian Values while celebrating their own culture as a private affair is enough to be an Australia whereas the Whites are more likely to say ‘Assimilation’ is necessary.
@ Marh
I agree i saw this. It probably shows that there is a greater divide so a pure social conservative realignment without nationalism is very hard. Labor probably wants the debate about Multiculturalism as they dont want working class CALD people to join any realignment with the white working class.